The Bitch Ditch

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Now, You couldn’t describe me as pleasantly happy being picky and remain an honest woman. Even then, I’m not unsatisfied about it, either. I just suggest it in this blog as an appetizing piece of info foreshadowing what I will shortly discuss honestly.

A week ago today I was walking the dog, Stacey, considering buying a membership to Great Expectations Dallas. Now, I type to you as a happy member of the matchmaking service. No kidding, and I almost don’t believe it myself! Its very comfortable and full of nice people! If you know me at all, you’re probably thinking, “Stop blabbering and tell me about it already.”

Here’s how it went down, I saw these Great Expectations Reviews and felt encouraged. They’re for quality and professional singles who think dating doesn’t have to be so frivolous and stupid.

‘Cause I’d never enjoyed or even tolerated the ridiculous nightlife ritual my friends and my family have named “The Dating Game.” I faced it more than anyone should. Each night they nagg, “Are you seeing somebody?” and “Oh I know just the guy for you!”

“Ugh, and double ugh.” I banter right back, without missing a beat. “There’s nothing to date!”

“Not true,” they deadpan. “That’s just an excuse for your cynicism.”

That’s just my best friend The One-And-Only Trisha Holland. She beams reality to my mind to put me back on course. Caring souls are always there for fresh advice. No countering that, and I joined.

Coming home to the message of this post. As I browsed from thousands of combinations of outfits for my first Great Expectations date, I realized something true. For years, I hadn’t entertained too many figurative great expectations for dating and myself in the fun-filled winding course of life. Single life has its perks, especially with healthy optimism. Having great expectations does wonders on a cynics social life.

~Denise Ross

A common thinking among “Marketing people ” is that for every product that enters the market there must be a path, a target, a need ( real or created) that decides how the product must enter the consumer’s life, which part of the population is more likely to go for it, which niche it is going to fill and, most important “…certain things being stated, something other than what is stated follows of necessity from their being so.” and that is the final issue: the price.

Depending on those anavoidable patterns a product is more or less ready for a certain market.

High technologically devices, the ones that offer perfect quality and cost a fortune will target the elitarian market, where the price has not big importance (on the contrary, if the price would be lower than what certain people can afford, the product wouldn’t reach them) since it means luxury.

When a product ceases to be luxury and begins to be a need, then the mass market is ready. The product can enter 60% of consumers’ lives, reach easily a good upgrade in the percentage and become ” The New Product of the year 200….”.

Let’s consider the VoIP market.

Prior to recent theoretical work on social needs, the usual purpose of a product invoked individual (social) behaviors. We now know that these assumptions are not completely wrong.

Wrong would be NON considering them.

In systems where many people are free to choose between many options, a small subset of the whole offer will get a disproportionate amount of traffic (or attention, or income), even if no one of the system actively work towards such an outcome. This has nothing to do with moral weakness, selling out, or any other psychological explanation. The very act of choosing, spread widely enough and freely enough, creates a power law distribution.

Now, thanks to a series of breakthroughs in network theory by researchers we know that power law distributions tend to arise in social systems where many people express their preferences among many options. We also know that as the number of options rise, the curve becomes more extreme. This is a counter-intuitive finding - most of us would expect a rising number of choices to flatten the curve, but in fact, increasing the size of the system increases the gap between the #1 spot and the median spot.

In other words: give to the people the choice among desktop phones and mobile phones and the majority will choose what they think more convenient, in spite of the cost of the service.

In a way the cost of the service is the only left advantage in favour of the fixed telephony.

If the price was the same the desktop phones would disappear from the life of the average consumer (mass market consumer).

To see how freedom of choice could create such unequal distributions, consider a hypothetical population of a thousand people, each picking their favorite way of telecommunication. One way to model such a system is simply to assume that each person has an equal chance of liking each kind of telephony. This distribution would be basically flat - most kind of telephony will have the same number of people listing it as a favorite. A few will be more popular than average and a few less, of course, but that will be statistical noise. The bulk of the telephony will be of average popularity, and the highs and lows will not be too far different from this average. In this model, neither the quality of the voice, the availability, the design of the device nor other people’s choices have any effect; there are no shared tastes, no preferred genres, no effects from marketing or recommendations from friends.

This is the mass market of VoIP as dreamed and forecasted by most hardware producers.

People would choose VoIP in spite of the fact that the systems are not intercommunicating, the available phones are just desktop phones, most of the population doesn’t have a “Flat rate DSL” and some do not even have a decent connection, (just one ” UP to…) and just because VoIP means cutting cost.

They have a few wrong assumptions:

1. Most of the people want to save calling internationally

2. Most of the people will use a cheap Flat rate connection

3. Most of the people know how to handle a computer or a network, and so solve all the eventual problems that could arise.

But they do not consider that:

1. Most people call locally and just a few once in a while internationally.

2. Most of the people do not have a cheap flat rate Internet

3. Most of the people are not IT experts.

Besides people’s choices do affect one another. If we assume that any kind of telephony chosen by one user is more likely, by even a fractional amount, to be chosen by another user, the system changes dramatically.

If Robert (our average mass market consumer) likes to have a phone in his pocket, available mostly anywhere, it is very likely that Mary would like the same.

Is VoIp ready for the “Mass Market”?

The answer could be No and Yes.

What would VoIP offer more than the existing several choices?

1. Price. Telephone calls would be completely free of charge among two IP phones ( and that believe me is a GREEEEAT THING when you try it)

2. The never enough considered satisfaction to be able to ref..ck who f..cked us for many years…

What would VoIP telephony need to be #1 spot in the curve?

1. A reliable PORTABLE Phone that doesn’t need millions of Hot Spot’s to work.

2. A reliable, cheap flat rate internet connection anywhere for everybody.

If ONE could put these patterns together, THEN VoIP would really have the chance to be #1.

See my website: http://www.worldonip.com or contact me patrizia@worldonip.com

About The Author

Patrizia is an ebooks publisher. See also http://www.easymediabroadcast.com

patrizia@worldonip.com

“As business people we manufacture shin pads, or we distribute cat food, or we evangelize, but should we be considering VoIP? Will it make us more money, or save us time?” -Dennis Schooley

So what’s all this VoIP hype anyway? I mean we all know that our voice can be delivered to the four corners of the globe over telephone lines. (Actually, I missed that part of second grade math where they taught us that a ball has corners, but everybody says it, so I’ll accept it). Alex G. Bell, the second most famous resident of Brantford, Ontario, right after Wayne Gretzky of course, led us down the voice transmission path.

We’re also fully aware of the Internet. Otherwise where would we get our sports scores, weather reports, horoscopes, and genealogy fixes. So why do we care about the real-time transmission of our voice, in telephone quality, using Internet protocol (VoIP)?

Presumably the whole concept was created to deliver some benefit to us techno-ignorant dwellers of the house of the masses. As business people we manufacture shin pads, or we distribute cat food, or we evangelize, but should we be considering VoIP? Will it make us money, or save us time? Will it make us more efficient as a Manufacturer, Distributor, or Evangelist? If the answer to those questions is no, then we shouldn’t even think about it. So let’s explore those questions. After all, it’s all about results.

Geoffrey Moore introduced the concept that a product must cross the chasm of market acceptance in the ‘Technology Adoption Life Cycle’ in his book Crossing the Chasm. In his next book, Inside the Tornado, Moore talks about the tornado of market acceptance that lies like a siren beyond the chasm. It appears that VoIP is clawing up the far wall of the chasm, but we don’t know for sure whether it will find that toe hold to crawl out, and catch the swirling tornado winds of fortune. All indicators are that it’s going to happen. Dorothy and the Tin Man are holding their breath.

Perhaps the most significant indicator is that the ‘business-prevention specialists’, a title I usually reserve for lawyers, but in this case is applied affectionately to the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) and the Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission (CRTC), have begun the task of investigating what should be regulated in the world of VoIP. The FCC has already delivered a ruling on a VoIP product offered by AT&T. That fact in itself should make us all take notice that there must be something good coming, or they wouldn’t be showing up at the dance to make sure the band isn’t too loud.

Larry Stocker, of Schooley Mitchell Telecom Consultants in Kansas City says, ‘if my clients’ interest in VoIP is any indicator, then I think there will be a big increase in the provision of the service. We have quadrupled our number of assignments in the last six months alone, for clients that wish to select the right VoIP service, at the right price, from the right supplier. That seems to be a good indicator of market acceptance.

Another good indicator would be the number of suppliers, including the tier-one Telco’s that have entered the fray to provide VoIP in their own particular flavor. That fact should cause us pause. It should cause us to challenge the original premise that talking over the Internet will be free’, and that there will be no long distance cost any more. If that were the case, would all of these big companies - the renowned leaders in the telecom world - be scrambling to get to market to provide the service? Maybe it’s just their way of giving back to society. I’m more inclined to think there are huge profits at stake.

And now you say, ‘but I’ve already got the Internet, why isn’t it free’. Well first of all, you’ll need some kind of device that delivers ‘telephone quality’ over the Internet. Remember, I said ‘real time’. Those $20 microphones just don’t do it. In addition, have you ever tried to put someone on hold on the Internet, or call forward, or take a voice message you know, the things that businesses do everyday.

Presumably that’s what all these suppliers are running the relay for to sell you that ’stuff’ at the end of the race. Whether they sell it to you outright, or whether you rent it from them for a monthly service fee isn’t the point. The point is that there is a cost to get access, as well as proper business applications. Included in the cost, which will be recovered through charges to you, are signaling, routing, protocol, and interface technologies. Oops, that’s not layman’s talk.

Presumably that’s what all these suppliers are running the relay for to sell you that ’stuff’ at the end of the race.

In addition to the access ’stuff’ as a layman would say, there has to be access to the Public Switched Telephone Network (PSTN), or I would never be able to call my mother. VoIP calls have to terminate on everyday telephone sets because I’m pretty sure my mom doesn’t have a VoIP set up at her house. She doesn’t have a bankcard, won’t stay in a hotel that doesn’t have ‘real keys’, and still loves her dial phone (definitely in Moore’s technology buying group called Skeptics or Laggards). There is no way I’ll be talking to her over her Internet connection she doesn’t have one, and never will. So this VoIP thing will have to access the normal phone system. That’s where the FCC and CRTC step in. Their position is that if the PSTN will be accessed, then access fees will have to be paid by the providers. And up goes the cost.

In his book, Implementing Voice Over IP, Bhumip Khasnabish, says “The goals of VoIP implementation are to achieve (a) significant savings in network maintenance and operations costs and (b) rapid rollout of new services.”

O.K., so it’s not free but there should be ’significant savings’ if that holds true. Assuming those savings will be passed on, it should make me more money through cost reduction. Presumably these new services’ will be designed to save me time, make me more efficient, or provide easier access to my target markets. Just think if one step can be eliminated in the manufacture of shin pads, if distribution channels for cat food are more streamlined, or the Evangelist can find more heathens to convert.

Bill Webster, another Schooley Mitchell consultant in Calgary, Alberta says, “the key is to assess the reliability and quality of service. If the quality is what you need, and by the way, it’s improving every day, then a cost-benefit analysis is required comparing your current access to VoIP. Often times VoIP is the winner. As new services with VoIP become available over time, that win will be even more evident for the regular business person.”

So there you have it. Should you or shouldn’t you, as the title queries? It seems that the answer is akin to; should I or shouldn’t I, when Alexander Graham introduced the telephone concept in the first place. I’m pretty sure that everyone, at least those that are alive today, eventually got one. Bell had to deal with laggards too.

It seems that this is the way the market will develop if the supply and regulatory indicators hold true. VoIP is not out of the chasm yet, but when this many suppliers enter the arena, then functionality is driven up to deliver the ‘better mouse trap’, price is driven down through competitive alternatives, reliability (the bugs are worked out) is driven up by the same forces, and you have emergence.

It seems that if you take Webster’s advice and prepare the proper cost-benefit analysis, you’re likely going to be getting your kite ready for the VoIP tornado.

Copyright Schooley Mitchell Telecom Consultants 2004

Dennis Schooley is the Founder of Schooley Mitchell Telecom Consultants, a Professional Services Franchise Company. He writes for publication, as well as for http://schooleymitchell.blogging,com and http://franchises.blogging.com, in the subject areas of Franchising, and Technology for the Layman. http://www.schooleymitchell.com, 888-311-6477, dschooley@schooleymitchell.com.

Naveen Jain is the CEO of Intelius, an online information company which has revolutionized the way people gain access to information to protect themselves, their families, and their assets in this increasingly complex and interconnected world.

Described as extremely intelligent and charismatic, the entrepreneur numbers among the few individuals who have risen to become the most influential men in the IT industry. Creating an Internet company is one thing, but expanding on it, emerging with innovative products and reaping numerous awards and accolades require a closer look, up close and personal at the man which Forbes listed among the 400 Richest in America and once heralded as the man who was “smarter than Bill (Gates).”

Naveen Jain, now 49, grew up in India as the son of a civil engineer and lived a modest life. Influenced by his environment and learning from the stories of the most successful business leaders, Naveen Jain charted a course toward an ambitious goal. In pursuit of this goal, he graduated from the Indian Institute of Technology with a Bachelor of Science in engineering. He then obtained an Masters Degree in Business Administration from the XLRI Jamshedpur School of Management. In 1989, he joined Microsoft and worked alongside his role model: Bill Gates. In 1996, he formed his own company InfoSpace with little financing. In 2003, he created Intelius alongside former colleagues from both Microsoft and InfoSpace.

Due to his unwavering commitment and tireless pursuit of excellence and innovation, Naveen Jain and his company have received nominations for a number of prestigious business awards, including:

• the 2006 Ernst and Young Entrepreneur of the Year award,
• the 2006 Stevie Award for Best New Company,
• the 2007 CODIiE Award for Best Online Consumer Service, and
• the 2007 Stevie Award for Most Innovative Company.

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